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Has the recession ended?
Tue, 24 Nov - 17:33

South Africa released official quarter 3 GDP statistics today. These tend to be a lagging indicator, but encouragingly reflected growth for the quarter at an annual 0,9%, after shrinking for the previous 3 quarters. There was a rebasing and a revision of data, and this reflected that GDP for 2008 was revised upwards from 3,1% to 3,7%.

The 0,9% means that the country is technically out of a recession.

The rebasing from 2000 to 2005 is a common and necessary practice. In rand terms the size of the economy at the end of 2008 was stated at R2 284 billion. i.e. R2,3 trillion.

In US dollar terms this is approximately $300 billion, which compares to the US at $14,2 trillion and China at $4,3 trillion. The graph below reflects the relative sizes.

Tiger Brands is a company with a history that goes back to 1921 and listed on the JSE in 1944. It owns a number of well known food brands. The results to September reflected turnover up 8% to R20,4 billion, operating income up 24% to R3,1 billion and profit for the year from continuing operations up 43% to R2,479 billion.

Headline EPS from continuing operations gained 20% to 1382c

The share price gained 1,9% to 16300c giving it a market cap of R30,9 billion.

Adcock Ingram was unbundled from Tiger Brands a year back. It also reported its annual results as a separate listed company. The company provides branded and generic medicines, consumables and hospital and medical equipment. Turnover increased 21% to R4,1 billion with net profit for the year up 19% to R789m. Headline EPS gained 16,1% to 450c

The shares gained 4% to R52,49. It has been a steady gainer since listing at the end of August 2008 from R30. The company has a market cap of R9 billion

Kelly Group, which is in employment recruiting business, released their annual results with revenue essentially flat at R2,2 billion, but profit before tax down 38% to R82,7million. Headline EPS declined by 40% to 61,7 cents.

The company felt the impact of the global and local recession with the second half of the year declining substantially. The company operates under a number of brands, including Kelly, PAG, Accountants on Call. Frontline, Renwick, Executive Secretary Appointments etc.

The company listed in April 2007. The price floundered from R10 down to R3 before recovering slightly to the current 497c.

Global markets are all down for the day following yesterday’s gains.

Kind regards

Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966



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